Mets set to wrap up road trip with three games in Seattle (2024)

Fresh off leapfrogging the Braves in the standings, the Mets (61-54) head to Seattle for a three-game set against the (tied for) first-place Mariners (60-56). This trip, the final series in the Mets’ west-coast swing, is against the best team of the batch, with the Mets coming into the weekend having gone four and three thus far on the road trip.

After a disappointing weekend series against the Angels where the Mets lost two games by one run apiece, the Mets looked considerably stronger against the Cardinals for their make-up game and the three against the Rockies. While they were certainly aided by the thin air in Colorado, the Mets’ bats woke up a bit after being so ineffective with runners in scoring position. While they still have work to do in that regard, it was a bit of a relief to see them light up Austin Gomber on Thursday. Too many times this year, the Mets haven’t piled on and taken advantage of the bad teams they’ve played. The Rockies are a bad team, and it was good to see the Mets get a laffer against a clearly inferior team.

While the Mets’ bullpen has been pretty good lately, they are getting some relief (pun intended) with the impending returns of the Re(i/e)d brothers, Reed Garrett and Sean Reid-Foley. There aren’t clear candidates for who gets sent down, but it will likely be some combination of Alex Young and Huascar Brazobán, simply because of their minor league options and lack of standout performances just yet. Both will likely be back before rosters expand in September due to churn/injury/ineffectiveness, but they seem the most likely candidates. That said, the dueling lefty Youngs have been a nice luxury for the Mets, and it would be a shame to lose that.

The Mets are getting a little bit of luck in that they are facing the Mariners while both J.P. Crawford and Julio Rodriguez are on the shelf. Their absence makes the Mariners’ lineup far less intimidating. They are also catching the team on a bit of a skid, despite their gaining on the Astros. They’ve won just two games in which they were leading going into the ninth inning in their last three series, taking just one of three from both the Red Sox and Tigers, while helping the Mets out by taking two of three from the clearly superior Phillies. I know it is strange to designate non-walk off victories from walk-offs, but I think it is an important piece of the last week plus of Mariners’ baseball: they just aren’t playing as well as they had been earlier in the year.

By wRC+, the Mets are the sixth most potent offense in baseball (112 wRC+); the Mariners are the 21st (95 wRC+). Since June 1st, it is even more stark, with the Mets the best in baseball (127 wRC+) and the Mariners twenty second (98 wRC+). The Mariners have been helped by the additions of Victor Robles, Randy Arozarena, and Justin Turner, all of whom have helped to bolster their offense as of late. Much like the Mets’ remaking the bullpen, it hasn’t resulted in a wildly different team in terms of wins and losses just yet, but both teams are much more fortified and ready for a playoff push than they were just a few weeks ago. Robles, in particular, has looked excellent since coming on board.

That said, the Mariners’ pitching is quite good, and the Mets are going to need to work hard, and be better than they have been with RISP, in order to break through. This is an interesting case study of a top tier offense who is struggling a bit facing off against a top tier pitching staff who is also not at the top of their game. It should be a good series.

Friday, August 9: Jose Quintana vs Bryce Miller at 10:10pm ET on SNY

Quintana (2024): 118.1 IP, 94 K, 44 BB, 18 HR, 3.95 ERA, 4.91 FIP, 101 ERA-

Quintana has been very steady for the Mets, going at least five innings since July 1, with only one bad start in that stretch, when he gave up five earned runs (and four home runs) to the Rockies at Citi Field on July 14th. His walks have been increasing a bit as of late, but there’s nothing in his performance that seems to be suggesting major regression or a collapse.

Miller (2024): 126.2 IP, 113 K, 30 BB, 16 HR, 3.62 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 92 ERA-

Miller is coming off a short outing against the Phillies that saw him give up four earned runs in four and a third innings. Miller, a fourth round draft pick in 2021, is in his second big-league season and has been an effective and consistent presence in the M’s rotation. With this start possibly pushing him over his innings total from last season, there’s a chance that Miller could be headed for some fatigue though, honestly, his performance hasn’t really suggested that yet.

Saturday, August 10: Sean Manaea vs Logan Gilbert at 9:40pm ET on SNY

Manaea (2024): 120 IP, 122 K, 46 BB, 12 HR, 3.30 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 84 ERA-

Manaea is currently on the hottest streak of any Mets’ starter this season, throwing back to back seven inning shutout performances with double digit strikeouts, while walking just one in 14 innings. And to boot, those wins were against legitimate teams (the Twins and the Cardinals), not some of the chaff that the Mets have played recently. While Manaea is unlikely to keep up a performance quite this strong, one more against a very tough team would be welcome.

Gilbert (2024): 147.2 IP, 143 K, 26 BB, 17 HR, 3.05 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 78 ERA-

In his fourth season, Gilbert has continued to improve his game. Dropping his ERA to a career-low while also walking fewer batters than at any point in his career (1.6/9) and keeping up his strikeout rate, Gilbert is putting together an excellent season. After getting absolutely lit up by the Red Sox during the last series of July, Gilbert bounced back to toss a one run, seven strikeout performance against the Phillies over the weekend.

Luis Severino vs Luis Castillo at 7:10pm ET on ESPN

Severino (2024): 128.2 IP, 101 K, 44 BB, 15 HR, 4.06 ERA, 4.38 FIP, 103 ERA-

It has been a slog for Severino lately, as he’s struggled mightily in his past two starts and going back to the beginning of July. In the two most recent starts, he has an unsightly 11.25 ERA in 8.0 innings of work. Since the beginning of July, he has a still-bad 6.03 ERA. The Mets will need him to be better the rest of the way.

Castillo (2024): 142.1 IP, 139 K, 38 BB, 16 HR, 3.48 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 89 ERA-

Castillo has always felt like he’s on the brink of turning into a Cy Young contender, and last year, he finally got some votes and finished fifth in that tally. But he’s been remarkably consistent over the course of his major league career, with his ERA landing in the 2.99 to 3.98 range in each of the five seasons that preceded this one. His strikeout rate is down slightly this year compared to the last two, but he ranks 28th in baseball among 67 qualified starting pitchers in ERA.